US Presidential Elections math
eduardo de leon: "What I am opposed to is a dumb war. What I am opposed to is a rash war. What I am opposed to is the cynical attempt by Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and other armchair, weekend warriors in this administration to shove their own ideological agendas down our throats, irrespective of the costs in lives lost and in hardships borne. What I am opposed to is the attempt by political hacks like Karl Rove to distract us from a rise in the uninsured, a rise in the poverty rate, a drop in the median income - to distract us from corporate scandals and a stock market that has just gone through the worst month since the Great Depression. That's what I'm opposed to. A dumb war. A rash war. A war based not on reason but on passion, not on principle but on politics."
-Barack Obama, October 2, 2002
MK : Cheney criticized an Iraq invasion over 10 years ago
MK : the key thing is, what is he gonna do
MK : I'll probably end up voting for Obama
MK : but only cause Biden and Kucinich don't stand a chance
MK : but I still don't feel like he has any solid idea on how to end the way
MK : war
eduardo de leon: the other day I was looking up the candidates on YouTube's YouChoose 08 or whatever they call it
eduardo de leon: i was surprised to find that the only person whose ideas are closest to my thinking is Kucinich
MK : yeah well we're pretty far left
MK : too far to be accurately represented by a nationally elected candidate.
eduardo de leon: i think he just hasn't gotten to that yet
eduardo de leon: the problem is that none of the candidates provide real meaningful leadership on the issue
eduardo de leon: except for Biden, who has a good plan
eduardo de leon: detailed, at least
eduardo de leon: but expectations are so high for Obama that it looks like he's failed, when really he hasn't delivered any detailed plans for any of his ideas
eduardo de leon: and he's in danger of having people think that he doesn't have a plan..
MK : but he doesn't have a plan
eduardo de leon: but, being in a contest with Hillary, who just copies whatever works for others and avoids that doesn't, he can't show his hand too early
MK : at least Hilary released her Swiss Cheese Health Care plan
MK : that's the first plan of anything I've seen from her since becoming a Senator
eduardo de leon: only after others talked about their plans..
MK : well, Edwards
MK : no one else has anything so far reaching
eduardo de leon: i think (or perhaps i hope?) Obama is waiting for the right time to talk about his proposals
MK : Well the campaign started so early that they still have a lot of time
eduardo de leon: but come the rolling primaries
eduardo de leon: if obama doesn't get specific, he's toast..
MK : By the NY Primaries the only real candidates will most likely be Hilary, Obama, and Edwards
eduardo de leon: and he might be toast now-
MK : I dunno, it could be like Iowa in '04
MK : where the most bland candidate wins
eduardo de leon: i'm predicting an Edwards presidency
MK : for not saying anything anyone would disagree with
MK: he's still a long shot
eduardo de leon: well this is the skeptical in me talking, but Obama is black and Hillary's a woman;
Edwards is a white man from the south...
MK: He couldn't even carry the south before though
eduardo de leon: more than 50% of the country is Republican, who are they going to vote for
MK: otherwise, yes that makes sense
eduardo de leon: yeah, but the math is different in 08 than in 04..
eduardo de leon: the pendulum is swinging back around to the democrats..
eduardo de leon: by no means guaranteed, but do republicans want to get stuck with Hillary or with Edwards
eduardo de leon: obviously a lot can happen between now and election day (and even between election day and inauguration, after 2000)
eduardo de leon: but this is part of the new calculus
MK: or
MK: would it be to the point where between two white guys from the south republicans would not bother looking at Edwards
MK: since they have their white guy
eduardo de leon: sure..
eduardo de leon: if they can do that in the south, to register for one party to vote in their primaries, then in the general election you get your choice of southern white guy